Defense / Security

Europe: NATO remains a cornerstone of transatlantic security, originally formed in 1949 as a collective defense alliance against Soviet aggression. After the Cold War, NATO adapted to new missions, including counterterrorism and crisis management. Following the 9/11 attacks, NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time and deployed forces to Afghanistan. Today, NATO faces unprecedented challenges amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and growing global instability. At its 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July 2024, NATO welcomed Sweden as its newest member and reaffirmed its commitment to collective defense. Defense spending among the 32 allies surged by 18% in 2024, and NATO launched Steadfast Defender 24, its largest exercise in decades, to strengthen deterrence and readiness on its eastern flank.

Despite these efforts, NATO’s performance is under scrutiny. The alliance must balance urgent support for Ukraine with long-term modernization, while managing internal political divisions and addressing emerging threats from China and hybrid warfare. NATO has pledged continued assistance to Ukraine, including advanced air defense systems, long-range precision fires, and F-16 fighter jets, but production bottlenecks and political uncertainty in member states remain major obstacles.

Asian states increasingly look to the United States as a security partner amid rising tensions with China and North Korea. Japan has embarked on its most significant military expansion since World War II. Under its revised National Security Strategy (2022) and the Defense Buildup Program, Japan plans to double defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, aligning with NATO standards. The FY2025 defense budget is set at a record ¥8.7 trillion (US$58 billion), funding long-range strike capabilities such as Tomahawk missiles, satellite networks, and counterattack systems. This marks a strategic shift from a purely defensive posture to active deterrence against regional threats.

The U.S.-India defense partnership has also deepened. India, designated a “Major Defense Partner” since 2016, has signed foundational agreements enabling technology sharing and interoperability. U.S. arms sales to India now exceed $24 billion, including Apache helicopters, MH-60R Seahawks, and advanced surveillance systems. Joint initiatives like INDUS-X and the Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) framework aim to co-develop next-generation military technologies, while bilateral exercises such as Tiger Triumph 2025 underscore growing operational integration.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced the EU to rethink its dependence on Russian energy and critical raw materials. Under the REPowerEU plan, the EU cut Russian gas imports from 45% in 2021 to 19% in 2024, banned coal entirely, and reduced oil imports to 3%. However, Russian LNG imports rose by 18% in 2024, highlighting persistent vulnerabilities. The EU roadmap now targets a full phase-out of Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel by 2027, alongside diversification through trade agreements with Chile, Mexico, New Zealand, Australia, and India. The EU-Chile Interim Trade Agreement, which entered into force in February 2025, includes provisions for critical raw materials and green hydrogen cooperation, reinforcing Europe’s supply chain resilience.

To support Ukraine militarily, the EU mobilized €11.1 billion under the European Peace Facility and delivered over 1 million artillery shells in 2024, though production delays remain a concern. Plans for 2025 include supplying up to 2 million rounds and channeling revenues from frozen Russian assets into Ukraine’s defense.

Asia: South and Southeast Asia are modernizing their armed forces amid rising geopolitical tensions. Defense spending in ASEAN has grown steadily, with countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines investing in advanced naval and air platforms. The Philippines, for example, is shifting from counterinsurgency to maritime defense in the South China Sea, conducting joint drills with the U.S., Japan, and allies under Sama Sama 2025. Washington recently deployed MQ-9 Reaper drones and established a U.S.-Philippines joint task force to enhance maritime domain awareness and deterrence against Chinese coercion.

Global defense firms are also repositioning. Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems have relocated their Asian headquarters to Japan, reflecting Tokyo’s growing role as a defense hub. These moves align with Japan’s participation in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) with the U.K. and Italy to develop a next-generation fighter jet by 2035, and with expanded U.S.-Japan industrial cooperation on missile defense and electronic warfare systems.